Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f59424b147ccdac02948c46a724a8d6a3a9544748c4d926784be620de20d1e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 2c | 721.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 17c | 559.16$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…703fbacked Yes | 3c | 411.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 364.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 14c | 257.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 13c | 232.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e4…89e7backed Yes | 19c | 207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 20c | 202.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…3e1ebacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…84b5backed Yes | 23c | 191$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…67abbacked No | 77c | 191$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f33…78cabacked Yes | 23c | 190$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 78c | 185.1$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…9ba2backed Yes | 16c | 162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008f…b1dabacked Yes | 27c | 162$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 9c | 159.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b7…e3cebacked Yes | 19c | 129$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 73c | 128.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3363…77aebacked No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 12c | 114.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…368fbacked Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…aa88backed Yes | 16c | 113$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80fa…e69dbacked Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…389cbacked Yes | 13c | 112$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…a0c2backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c85…0158backed No | 77c | 108$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 12c | 107.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…8234backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb95…de6ebacked No | 74c | 99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a34…d4bfbacked Yes | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…fd05backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…e30ebacked Yes | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…5449backed Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f22…3c3dbacked No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384c…9cd7backed No | 79c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5a…3b88backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…a28abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…1d31backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc4…ce01backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…34f4backed No | 73c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba0…fd43backed No | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…fa01backed Yes | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c6…9e70backed Yes | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e1…2df9backed Yes | 22c | 65.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…9512backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…dd6abacked Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…c8a2backed No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…144cbacked No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…1352backed Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465e…1e4bbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d4…0cc3backed Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…3777backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…6977backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…7973backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…7de0backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90de…1d27backed No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…716bbacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2180…7a12backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…dd45backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 63c | 24.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…20c9backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…3a64backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…16d0backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8e…7fcbbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…cb8abacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…0f44backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…417dbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400a…3817backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…8165backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…6da7backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…5ec2backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…bb21backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…6da5backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe53…9eb1backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…8c78backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d8…cd99backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.