TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,532

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,847 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes10c1,410$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.5610833.3%36 W · 72 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+79.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes4c950.55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.433218.8%6 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c779.28$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes54c721.81$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.2321350.2%107 W · 106 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ad1…7e8abacked No37c622.94$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.941833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes27c570.28$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.397220.8%15 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick22cpaid+4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…9f20backed No76c348.02$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.977447.3%35 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabdf…46e1backed Yes30c334.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No65c326.2$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.845375.5%40 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+20.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x206c…9c7dbacked Yes30c320$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa568…12f6backed Yes30c305.57$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.372924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c300$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2181,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes23c296.09$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.14734%16 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e20…fd40backed Yes51c261.82$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.677030%21 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+55.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes30c260$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.46637.9%25 W · 41 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes7c241.55$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.5526339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked No41c232.95$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5111254.5%61 W · 51 L+20.1wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+75.9%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf187…4bd9backed No70c217$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f6b…87e0backed Yes50c201.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No17c185.56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.622506%15 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-67%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df2…1541backed Yes35c166$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ccb…b817backed No65c154$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfaa6…a1f5backed No61c144$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a2…3782backed Yes15c143$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+115.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f6…a9cebacked No70c143$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5581…f322backed Yes39c132$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.524100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+103.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c85…0158backed No70c128$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes29c125.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4298738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaaec…8dc8backed No74c121.96$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1849338.9%192 W · 301 L+49.3wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+51.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4ecc…b289backed No65c116$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc289…9dd9backed Yes40c103$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df7…94d6backed Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6511034.5%38 W · 72 L-9.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa45a…811abacked Yes39c99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes31c98.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.473644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes11c94.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0160235.7%215 W · 387 L+41.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+37.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c0…703fbacked Yes60c94.17$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae1…bea5backed Yes40c88$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a5b…c483backed No60c84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce42…f303backed Yes31c83$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d10…dca1backed No73c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.46156.7%1 W · 14 L-6.5wins-0.43per pick50cpaid-91.1%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x32bf…e093backed Yes24c79$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754e…e92abacked Yes36c76.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+42.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes27c73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.322,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8912…c61abacked No70c71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes34c70$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.31,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e6a…a27fbacked Yes28c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e0…0fedbacked Yes54c67.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+83.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ad…c8a2backed No70c67$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1300…11f0backed No61c64$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa190…bca6backed Yes40c62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e7…4d1abacked No60c60$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes19c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.781234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4595…940cbacked Yes28c58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0570…7eacbacked Yes40c57$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+106.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bd2…fbafbacked No69c55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebb1…c164backed Yes24c55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b5f…bcc8backed Yes28c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4129…15b0backed Yes28c54.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.71450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+953.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x700e…7ee4backed Yes28c54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x741d…c6b1backed Yes35c51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+114.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd19…8436backed No57c51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae94…13cdbacked No60c47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x063e…df66backed Yes35c46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf80c…04f9backed No72c45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03b7…80e2backed Yes31c44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x830c…9fb7backed Yes31c44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa287…530abacked Yes35c43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38c…6c80backed Yes35c42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa04d…482bbacked No60c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…3567backed Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x057c…5c07backed Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b3d…07a3backed No64c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4812…ee8cbacked Yes40c39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf00…1380backed No69c38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No51c36.65$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.832133.3%107 W · 214 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No42c35.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dfc…aefebacked Yes31c35.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f75…0307backed Yes32c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a0…5c97backed Yes31c35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd867…1256backed Yes61c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.751540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc76…f715backed Yes37c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+101.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed33…1371backed No69c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1843…34d7backed No65c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4334…de80backed No72c34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x819a…4db4backed Yes43c33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a8…4995backed No76c33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae1…bd1cbacked No60c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ff…a0bfbacked No69c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebd…9f2fbacked No72c27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b57…d63bbacked No60c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ae…10c4backed No76c26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7cd…dd45backed No69c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.94250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f5b…c7f1backed No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe098…5966backed No76c24$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…d791backed No65c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x020f…3fc6backed No72c24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8524…7d91backed No79c23.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.641050%5 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5f…23b0backed No65c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca4…70aebacked No64c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.