Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8626327f4b96e28f176b4059699594e8ff036095004dd9687118b6066a99fcee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,410$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.56 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 4c | 950.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.43 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 779.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 54c | 721.81$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.23 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked No | 37c | 622.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 27c | 570.28$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.39 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 76c | 348.02$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.97 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…46e1backed Yes | 30c | 334.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 65c | 326.2$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.84 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…9c7dbacked Yes | 30c | 320$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 30c | 305.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.37 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 300$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 23c | 296.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.1 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 51c | 261.82$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.67 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 30c | 260$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 7c | 241.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.55 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 232.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…4bd9backed No | 70c | 217$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6b…87e0backed Yes | 50c | 201.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 17c | 185.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…1541backed Yes | 35c | 166$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccb…b817backed No | 65c | 154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…a1f5backed No | 61c | 144$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…3782backed Yes | 15c | 143$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…a9cebacked No | 70c | 143$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…f322backed Yes | 39c | 132$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c85…0158backed No | 70c | 128$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 125.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed No | 74c | 121.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…b289backed No | 65c | 116$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…9dd9backed Yes | 40c | 103$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45a…811abacked Yes | 39c | 99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 31c | 98.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 11c | 94.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…703fbacked Yes | 60c | 94.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…bea5backed Yes | 40c | 88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5b…c483backed No | 60c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…f303backed Yes | 31c | 83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -6.5wins | -0.43per pick | 50cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x32bf…e093backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked Yes | 36c | 76.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…c61abacked No | 70c | 71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…a27fbacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked Yes | 54c | 67.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ad…c8a2backed No | 70c | 67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…11f0backed No | 61c | 64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa190…bca6backed Yes | 40c | 62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e7…4d1abacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…940cbacked Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…7eacbacked Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd2…fbafbacked No | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…c164backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…bcc8backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…15b0backed Yes | 28c | 54.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +953.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…7ee4backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…c6b1backed Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd19…8436backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…13cdbacked No | 60c | 47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063e…df66backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80c…04f9backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b7…80e2backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830c…9fb7backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…530abacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…6c80backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…482bbacked No | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…3567backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…5c07backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…07a3backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4812…ee8cbacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf00…1380backed No | 69c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 36.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfc…aefebacked Yes | 31c | 35.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f75…0307backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…5c97backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…f715backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed33…1371backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1843…34d7backed No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4334…de80backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x819a…4db4backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…4995backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…bd1cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ff…a0bfbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…9f2fbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…d63bbacked No | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…10c4backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…dd45backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5b…c7f1backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…5966backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…d791backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…3fc6backed No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 79c | 23.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5f…23b0backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…70aebacked No | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.