Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5000b58b71cc2aa719a8958dd777a7ab801e045228e331f91f0c8c94e5f25da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ad1…7e8abacked Yes | 4c | 7,753$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…1256backed Yes | 2c | 2,034$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 60c | 1,331$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.44 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…b411backed Yes | 15c | 1,251$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 724.63$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.64 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 18c | 721.81$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 58c | 699.79$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.1 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 36c | 582.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.06 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7825…9abdbacked Yes | 36c | 471$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 73c | 409.41$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 31c | 409.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.04 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 33c | 399.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d91…54a3backed Yes | 29c | 371$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757b…d066backed No | 64c | 347$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 55c | 342.91$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.16 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 53c | 299.58$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.8 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 273.21$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf69d…5868backed Yes | 30c | 227$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…2c98backed No | 64c | 195$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 34c | 170.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 54c | 167.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…bb19backed Yes | 36c | 167$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…8fd5backed No | 64c | 152$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…3782backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…4631backed Yes | 36c | 148$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…379fbacked No | 71c | 137$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…1fd4backed No | 71c | 136$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 49c | 132.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 128.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed No | 61c | 124.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…7be7backed No | 62c | 122$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…aabfbacked No | 52c | 102$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…7467backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6b…87e0backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…30a7backed No | 70c | 99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…7a65backed No | 71c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef12…300dbacked No | 64c | 92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd6…ff4bbacked Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…90d1backed No | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…fa06backed Yes | 39c | 86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…468cbacked No | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…8d58backed No | 70c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…5c78backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0e…a69bbacked Yes | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e087backed Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed Yes | 78c | 72.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…9d72backed No | 74c | 72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…1948backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…a095backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…b8a5backed No | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b9…7093backed Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526f…4c4abacked Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…77e9backed Yes | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16e…f921backed No | 63c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…51ebbacked Yes | 54c | 62.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe08…658abacked Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0df…a552backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…5b87backed Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…9430backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…a909backed Yes | 48c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…e104backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…cb1cbacked No | 55c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…af70backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…6023backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…d71cbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa59…9e90backed Yes | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc544…68a5backed Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f8…0be0backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…f9a3backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…cfdfbacked Yes | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd822…9408backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6b…8b67backed Yes | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd142…553bbacked Yes | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…ade7backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…4425backed No | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4531…ef02backed Yes | 34c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…b327backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…55bcbacked Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…1f61backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8b…c753backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d0…df9cbacked Yes | 38c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed Yes | 52c | 40.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…69efbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x337c…1dfdbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…143dbacked Yes | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…19b3backed Yes | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…1f8dbacked No | 52c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb056…17d0backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769f…c265backed Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3adb…290abacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfef…a894backed Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…542ebacked Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c83…c089backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 59°F or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.