Serie A · resolved market
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe802c03e1dd87b4e08d1a76993515e0c7a4937e9bffc17e13442c810c03bcdb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 4,977$3,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.84 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed Yes | 30c | 3,349$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 2,863$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.43 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 30c | 2,591$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.14 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 142 | 49.3%70 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 775.11$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5635…6953backed Yes | 33c | 453.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 31c | 408$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 31c | 334$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 38c | 253.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 19c | 230.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 215.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Yes | 33c | 154$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 10c | 150.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 68c | 125$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 36c | 83.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…b417backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 37c | 37.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 75c | 28.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…de06backed No | 72c | 18.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Udinese Calcio vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw?this page
- Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
- Will Udinese Calcio win on 2025-11-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.