Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe807bacacba6cfc3a58d500deed71fb0df2529a2407e21e000b4245141c77c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 37c | 3,803$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,403.1 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 1,324$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.32 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 35c | 1,300$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 37c | 1,160$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.78 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 75c | 1,024$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.99 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Under | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 973.12$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.86 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 14c | 703.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 669.66$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.11 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Under | 16c | 640.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Under | 17c | 588$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 80c | 548.21$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Under | 30c | 333.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191a…b47dbacked Under | 9c | 318.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +665.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 63c | 238$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Under | 13c | 229$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 62c | 160$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 133.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…73dbbacked Under | 37c | 73.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 75c | 73.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 36c | 68.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 48c | 22.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 64c | 16.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-2.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.