Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da9847f1caf00b8e991bd5cf186eebda5b3b3659d362c6d4a5588f8892fc8e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 5,282$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,218.53 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 43c | 2,270$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.11 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,934$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.97 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 58c | 1,733$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.07 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 58c | 961.97$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.09 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 795$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.06 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 58c | 743.49$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 41c | 535.64$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 58c | 450$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 58c | 450$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 440.88$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.4 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 41c | 439.16$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.06 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 47c | 404.47$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 7c | 201.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 6cpaid | +1,926.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 174.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…3f8dbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 111.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.19 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 37c | 103.12$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Under | 44c | 101.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…1a94backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 46c | 64.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 24c | 49.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 58c | 49.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de1…8f45backed Under | 77c | 40.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 55c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 52c | 31.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7349backed Over | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 45c | 29.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 58c | 29.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 57c | 25.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…9857backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 56c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 44c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 17.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 78c | 16.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-1.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Lorient (-2.5)FC Lorient won
- Spread: FC Metz (-1.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.