NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85972ed9a092b480bde49745bd46f63c8d3b525ef100af25e1d19708c45cc0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Cavaliers | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Raptors | 49c | 2,930$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.39 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…1567backed Cavaliers | 44c | 2,064$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Cavaliers | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…0cafbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…893bbacked Raptors | 56c | 1,301$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…8397backed Raptors | 55c | 1,260$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Raptors | 60c | 1,252$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.84 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc7…53a3backed Raptors | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…88efbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 1,060$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…31dcbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…9ad7backed Raptors | 55c | 980$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9b…8275backed Raptors | 55c | 930$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…1b74backed Cavaliers | 45c | 910$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Raptors | 60c | 672$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.22 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…996fbacked Raptors | 56c | 632$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 42c | 582.67$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Raptors | 59c | 564.37$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.49 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Raptors | 57c | 250.65$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…9e28backed Cavaliers | 43c | 220.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 42c | 142$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…d90bbacked Raptors | 56c | 131$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers | 41c | 119.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Raptors | 56c | 106.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Raptors | 49c | 69.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 231 | 50.2%116 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e49…c523backed Raptors | 56c | 58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…f991backed Cavaliers | 44c | 57.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…3dedbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Cavaliers | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cavaliers | 47c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Raptors | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.