NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc59649adb2fa54c0e6f2262d845b8d6b5b8ec6d06ca695c364ef5405490eb9cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raptorsof Cavaliers, Raptors
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Raptors | 50c | 21,602$10,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,801 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 8,735$4,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,365.92 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 8,539$3,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,991.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 2,971$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.34 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Raptors | 61c | 2,682$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,492$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.56 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Raptors | 52c | 2,385$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.18 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers | 48c | 2,081$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.07 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 1,971$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.46 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Raptors | 53c | 1,520$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.92 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Raptors | 60c | 625$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 570$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 50c | 478$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 425.53$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.45 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Cavaliers | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf326…52f9backed Raptors | 58c | 335.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cavaliers | 46c | 217.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Cavaliers | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Cavaliers | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Cavaliers | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…b4c8backed Raptors | 59c | 134.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba24…2232backed Raptors | 60c | 124.53$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…b516backed Raptors | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…da66backed Cavaliers | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Raptors | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3987…259ebacked Cavaliers | 41c | 67.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 80 | 22.5%18 W · 62 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Cavaliers | 48c | 58.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cavaliers | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Cavaliers | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Cavaliers | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Cavaliers | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed Raptors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +91%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers | 49c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Cavaliers | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Raptors | 53c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Raptors won
- Raptors vs. CavaliersRaptors won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.