Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe85be9480b3ee3d32c85a38ea58cc14a3468ea68c2d3a1d99b514fd24b212911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 2,019$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 589.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 12c | 498.92$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 79c | 489.47$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 8c | 442.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 389.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 371.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 370$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 77c | 345.44$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 311.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 7c | 277.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 264.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 20c | 257.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 219.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 16c | 183.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…4d38backed Yes | 13c | 182.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 169.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…39eebacked Yes | 17c | 168.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…3801backed Yes | 10c | 164.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 13c | 152.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 145.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 142.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 12c | 135.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 129.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 128.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 125.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 15c | 123.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed No | 80c | 98.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 16c | 91.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 80c | 90.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…62f0backed Yes | 22c | 88.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…485abacked Yes | 18c | 85.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 19c | 79.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 23c | 70.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 21c | 63.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 77c | 51.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…76bebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 79c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 15.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.