Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b224f0ee956a1e3c0f191b3a0499be995e834185014c312eb31cf538cc9ecda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 75c | 819.79$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 645.57$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 75c | 417.58$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.19 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 415.68$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.88 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 63c | 411.26$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 389.76$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.39 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 382.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 26c | 370.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.09 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 26c | 353.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 344.67$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 35c | 342.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.52 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 53c | 329.58$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked No | 5c | 307.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 280.61$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 246.93$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 75c | 246.48$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 246.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 80c | 245.63$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 32c | 220.73$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 211.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 57c | 196.46$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 17c | 193.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…62f0backed Yes | 33c | 190.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 58c | 187.25$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff3…a737backed Yes | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 178.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…034dbacked No | 54c | 175.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 34c | 173.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 168.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 40c | 168.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa73…c2c4backed Yes | 17c | 152.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 39c | 146.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 145.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 143.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 34c | 139.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 128.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 126.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb99c…177abacked Yes | 11c | 124.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 63c | 121.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 73c | 119.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 119.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 33c | 115.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 65c | 114.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 75c | 112.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.59 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 59c | 105.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 27c | 102.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed No | 52c | 102.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e7…0d71backed No | 47c | 101.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed No | 44c | 99.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 72c | 98.81$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 33c | 96.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 95.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 32c | 94.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 12c | 93.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 15c | 93.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 72c | 93.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 93.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 15c | 90.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 21c | 87.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…e677backed Yes | 16c | 83.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +298.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 81.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…031dbacked No | 48c | 80.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 24c | 79.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c7…485abacked Yes | 24c | 77.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed Yes | 17c | 76.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 27c | 76.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 76.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…98e5backed Yes | 62c | 75.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 68c | 72.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 72.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 71.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ac…c678backed Yes | 33c | 71.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 20c | 69.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 69.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.13 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 76c | 67.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…4d38backed Yes | 29c | 66.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 65.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 24c | 65.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…b479backed Yes | 21c | 65.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 62.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 65c | 61.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 60c | 56.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 58c | 49.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9481…b947backed Yes | 80c | 49.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 62c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 48.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 37c | 47.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 46.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.