Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe561e5aa07b77bd58a42d0a6d7c78fd219e30804cb279faf8b71b28a6214c45d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 49c | 935.04$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.06 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 52c | 825.77$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.4 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 52c | 819.53$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 48c | 814.89$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.74 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 693.05$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.87 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 74c | 606.36$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.97 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 79c | 533.62$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 54c | 480.18$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 67c | 477.65$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.38 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4808…5309backed Yes | 15c | 424.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +251.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 78c | 405.61$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 29c | 404.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.85 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 381.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 346.66$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 299.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 31c | 288.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 31c | 256.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 63c | 241$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.83 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 49c | 218.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 216.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…98e5backed Yes | 29c | 203.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 15c | 194.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 31c | 185.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 180.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 175.25$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…d079backed Yes | 35c | 165.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 45c | 160.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed No | 61c | 158.07$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 69c | 153.08$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…63f0backed No | 69c | 144.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 26c | 143.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 10c | 142.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 47c | 142.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.65 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 69c | 138.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 13c | 134.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 65c | 134.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 132.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 130.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 33c | 127.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 33c | 127.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 48c | 120.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 119.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 45c | 116.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 54c | 109.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…64cebacked Yes | 35c | 102.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 60c | 100.36$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 75c | 98.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 33c | 97.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 53c | 97.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 49c | 96.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 35c | 96.35$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 96.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 95.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 94.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 93.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 67c | 92.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 86.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 85.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes | 53c | 83.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 81.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…6390backed Yes | 59c | 81.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed No | 68c | 80.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes | 58c | 77.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 60c | 74.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 29c | 71.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 72c | 67.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 33c | 64.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 50c | 64.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 35c | 60.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 50c | 60.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…05f0backed No | 68c | 57.2$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 62c | 55.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 44c | 53.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 40c | 52.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…92c3backed Yes | 33c | 52.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…f787backed No | 46c | 51.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked No | 26c | 51.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b5…757fbacked No | 79c | 51.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…9384backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda26…8fefbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b8…35d7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 35c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed No | 59c | 48.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 48.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 38c | 46.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 32c | 46.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 68c | 45.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 43c | 44.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.