TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,761
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,761 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes49c935.04$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.061,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes52c825.77$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.423743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes52c819.53$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4281,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No48c814.89$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.7490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes37c693.05$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.874,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No74c606.36$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.9722450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No79c533.62$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.181,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes54c480.18$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.981,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No67c477.65$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.384037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4808…5309backed Yes15c424.53$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+251.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed Yes78c405.61$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.851233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes29c404.62$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8523823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c381.83$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.435,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c346.66$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c299.95$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.21,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes31c288.84$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.645127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes31c256.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes63c241$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.838643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c218.69$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.321,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes33c216.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7558422.8%133 W · 451 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d61…98e5backed Yes29c203.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.951553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes15c194.06$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0735133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb557…634cbacked Yes31c185.42$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.091844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c180.49$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.0512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No69c175.25$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.32,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed Yes35c165.57$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.062839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No45c160.91$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8216046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c160$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No61c158.07$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7613423.1%31 W · 103 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5147…f078backed No69c153.08$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.716845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…63f0backed No69c144.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.173265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes26c143.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes10c142.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2516832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No47c142.14$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6556543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked No69c138.48$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.357558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes13c134.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3618327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No65c134.49$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6719059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes51c132.78$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.991,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No65c130.3$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes33c127.36$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7830144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes33c127.14$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4310843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed No48c120.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.436241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes31c119.53$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.627,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes45c116.42$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.213844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes54c109.34$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9618845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe90a…64cebacked Yes35c102.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.951546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No60c100.36$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7116456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No75c98.1$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5219753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x068c…c5bebacked Yes33c97.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes53c97.38$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1511249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes49c96.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5731943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No35c96.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.162040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No47c96.26$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0219547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No48c95.11$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4618052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes29c95$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.981234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No67c94.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.462,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes30c93.4$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked No67c92.28$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.229552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No47c91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.239,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes44c86.74$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c85.53$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes53c83.26$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.818164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c81.57$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.343,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…6390backed Yes59c81.32$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.95450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed No68c80.86$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8811129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c80$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes58c77.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.811747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes60c74.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4534067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes29c71.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7422023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6297…517ebacked Yes25c70$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51,64327.8%456 W · 1,187 L+117.6wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No72c67.7$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1120266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes33c64.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0114637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes50c64.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8235233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.942,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No35c60.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3321440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No50c60.44$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2420353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x466c…05f0backed No68c57.2$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.261361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes62c55.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2916045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes44c53.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.629835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes40c52.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.052944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…92c3backed Yes33c52.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.241942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dcd…f787backed No46c51.9$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No26c51.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.269122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b5…757fbacked No79c51.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.721384.6%11 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick76cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2527851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f6…9384backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c6d…8371backed Yes57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick62cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b8…35d7backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae8…5a42backed No70c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154831.3%15 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed No35c49.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.49633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6733…acb9backed No59c48.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.182722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No65c48.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.865,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes38c46.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes32c46.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes29c46.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4749038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No25c46.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.6915435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No68c45.75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.641,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No43c44.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.37650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.