NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Golden Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe871e76aa48c27e582b1b9f748a68cf88f9d4f578be9a77d539f6a7a03c8c7ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden Knightsof Stars, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,928
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,928 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ebf…6961backed Stars | 58c | 6,602$3,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,829.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…37d4backed Golden Knights | 42c | 6,602$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,829.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9390…dca0backed Golden Knights | 43c | 2,236$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Golden Knights | 68c | 1,000$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.8 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed Golden Knights | 79c | 800.34$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…1e3fbacked Stars | 57c | 614$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Stars | 24c | 606.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Stars | 38c | 526.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 724 | 48.3%350 W · 374 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Stars | 42c | 496.97$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.63 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Stars | 10c | 471.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ec…f8b2backed Stars | 58c | 424$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…c62fbacked Stars | 56c | 333$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d99…d5c2backed Stars | 56c | 312$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…bfcfbacked Stars | 56c | 283$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8560…71b0backed Stars | 56c | 270$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Stars | 53c | 249.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Golden Knights | 47c | 231.36$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Stars | 9c | 221.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Golden Knights | 45c | 200.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…6143backed Golden Knights | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Golden Knights | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…f3e7backed Golden Knights | 51c | 196.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.63 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…2b42backed Stars | 52c | 196$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd2…26aebacked Stars | 52c | 196$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…4bdabacked Golden Knights | 48c | 196$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…9a07backed Golden Knights | 48c | 195.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…e0fabacked Stars | 52c | 194$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac7…3ec5backed Golden Knights | 48c | 193.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.87 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.37per pick | 51cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Stars | 39c | 188.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Golden Knights | 48c | 149.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Stars | 49c | 146.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…d0d5backed Stars | 60c | 143.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…9054backed Golden Knights | 49c | 142$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfb…c4e8backed Stars | 54c | 142$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…e111backed Golden Knights | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…ebf6backed Stars | 50c | 134$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe787…65d4backed Stars | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f05…6bd8backed Stars | 54c | 91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9658…8f9dbacked Golden Knights | 49c | 91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48d…9f73backed Stars | 57c | 87.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Stars | 55c | 72.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Golden Knights | 44c | 68.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…39c9backed Stars | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177e…a572backed Stars | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Golden Knights | 35c | 49.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 669 | 51%341 W · 328 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Golden Knights | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Golden Knights | 68c | 38.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 212 | 55.7%118 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…3690backed Stars | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe563…398bbacked Stars | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc5…817ebacked Stars | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd31…4f6dbacked Stars | 51c | 19.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…23dfbacked Stars | 56c | 18.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.