College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-24.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87f88fa1668aa569c57afe0bfdd6c0478dcda5ec2831d73b7969258617009b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Troyof James Madison, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Troy | 51c | 14,834$7,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,317.07 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed James Madison | 48c | 9,506$4,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,532.03 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked James Madison | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked James Madison | 49c | 5,686$2,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,786.27 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked James Madison | 48c | 5,046$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.16 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Troy | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Troy | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed James Madison | 49c | 3,010$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.14 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Troy | 50c | 2,780$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Troy | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Troy | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Troy | 51c | 737$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.15 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Troy | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Troy | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Troy | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Troy | 53c | 193$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Troy | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed James Madison | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Troy | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Troy | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Troy | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed James Madison | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed James Madison | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Troy | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-24.5)this page
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: James Madison (-22.5)Troy won
- Spread: James Madison (-23.5)Troy won
- Troy vs. James MadisonJames Madison won
- Troy vs. James Madison: 1H MoneylineJames Madison won
- Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.