College Football · resolved market
Spread: James Madison (-23.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b43a9e278c5020c03d0e7fd30c1df6e0b3ad79a119264626c6f5af065577e8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Troyof James Madison, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Troy | 47c | 91,280$43,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,041.55 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed James Madison | 52c | 73,525$38,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,232.33 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed James Madison | 54c | 10,000$5,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,402.33 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked James Madison | 54c | 9,111$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.94 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Troy | 48c | 8,553$4,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447.45 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Troy | 48c | 6,500$3,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed James Madison | 54c | 5,467$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,951.96 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed James Madison | 53c | 4,750$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked James Madison | 53c | 4,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed James Madison | 53c | 3,202$1,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.06 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed James Madison | 48c | 1,907$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.42 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed James Madison | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.08 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Troy | 47c | 1,283$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.9 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Troy | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Troy | 52c | 796$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.15 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Troy | 47c | 736.27$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.54 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0585…5fa1backed Troy | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Troy | 47c | 616.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.22 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Troy | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Troy | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Troy | 49c | 419.89$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.18 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Troy | 56c | 410$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked James Madison | 53c | 401.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Troy | 48c | 389$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…614cbacked Troy | 53c | 281.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Troy | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Troy | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed James Madison | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed James Madison | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…129ebacked Troy | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Troy | 48c | 91.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked James Madison | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Troy | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed James Madison | 53c | 67.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…3f14backed Troy | 71c | 65.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked James Madison | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Troy | 39c | 60.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed James Madison | 53c | 52.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed James Madison | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Troy | 48c | 42.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked James Madison | 54c | 41.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Troy | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked James Madison | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Troy | 47c | 30.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Troy | 52c | 29.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed James Madison | 49c | 22.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Troy | 50c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked James Madison | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked James Madison | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: James Madison (-23.5)this page
- O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: James Madison (-22.5)Troy won
- Spread: James Madison (-24.5)Troy won
- Troy vs. James MadisonJames Madison won
- Troy vs. James Madison: 1H MoneylineJames Madison won
- Troy vs. James Madison: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.