NHL · resolved market
KHL: Ak Bars Kazan vs. Spartak Moscow
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88007d49953ebc1ed933e7e06043e9177d559943f21f18536b0da0760dfff7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ak Bars Kazanof Ak Bars Kazan, Spartak Moscow
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,728 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe54…dd5fbacked Spartak Moscow | 42c | 6,383$2,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa640…d9bbbacked Spartak Moscow | 42c | 5,890$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…7141backed Ak Bars Kazan | 58c | 4,262$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1f…00c1backed Ak Bars Kazan | 58c | 4,226$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…87fabacked Ak Bars Kazan | 58c | 3,784$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 458.73$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.43 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Spartak Moscow | 44c | 450.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 57c | 432.86$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 351.06$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.37 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ak Bars Kazan | 78c | 196$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Spartak Moscow | 39c | 188.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Spartak Moscow | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Spartak Moscow | 39c | 102.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Ak Bars Kazan | 62c | 100.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Spartak Moscow | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Spartak Moscow | 40c | 94.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Ak Bars Kazan | 54c | 74.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Spartak Moscow | 40c | 67.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Ak Bars Kazan | 61c | 60.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 60.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Spartak Moscow | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 57c | 52.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Spartak Moscow | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 40.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…23ccbacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Spartak Moscow | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Spartak Moscow | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e9bebacked Spartak Moscow | 39c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Spartak Moscow | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Ak Bars Kazan | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Ak Bars Kazan | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 263 | 57.8%152 W · 111 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Ak Bars Kazan | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Ak Bars Kazan | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.