Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe890f236f5b13dae896b29bef9defc20e0144259b0425d253c9c06315c4b896d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 19c | 531.87$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 18c | 420.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 17c | 387.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 20c | 339.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 12c | 305.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 257.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed Yes | 17c | 213.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 209.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 16c | 199.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 9c | 179.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 165.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 147.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 18c | 103.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 101.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 17c | 88.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 13c | 87.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 73c | 82.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 19c | 71.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 17c | 66.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 18c | 56.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 19c | 52.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 79c | 50.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed No | 30c | 36.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 80c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 24.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 76c | 13.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.