Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb028172f7ed13c4fb1bd747b24f6801736e4db6a44cf900f618db08cd78e34e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 3c | 3,633$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 14c | 1,809$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.51 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 4c | 1,625$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,561$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 5c | 1,334$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 11c | 1,058$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.12 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 23c | 720.38$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 483.88$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed No | 62c | 399.98$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 363.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 358.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.74 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 351.47$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 17c | 322.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 24c | 313.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 4c | 230.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 225.65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 6c | 224.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 23c | 222.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 78c | 214.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 33c | 179.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 173$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 172.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 168.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 22c | 152.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.78 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 130.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 128.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 77c | 127.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 37c | 118.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed Yes | 26c | 116.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 33c | 105.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 32c | 102.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.62 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…aae2backed No | 51c | 98.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 92.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 62c | 88.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 87.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 74c | 87.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 16c | 87.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 14c | 84.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 26c | 78.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47db…f6bcbacked No | 69c | 74.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 69.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 77c | 67.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 79c | 61.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 34c | 59.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 72c | 53.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 31c | 52.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc12c…da6ebacked No | 73c | 52.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 68c | 51.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 78c | 48.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 46.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 35c | 43.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 72c | 40.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 39.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 34c | 39.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 37.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…1b38backed Yes | 41c | 36.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 35.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 35.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 34c | 35.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 72c | 34.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Yes | 46c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 94 | 39.4%37 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 33c | 32.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 68c | 32.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 50c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 66c | 26.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed No | 66c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 62c | 23.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked No | 78c | 21.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 69c | 19.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c1…8205backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…b9bebacked No | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 66c | 17.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked Yes | 72c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 67c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 70c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.