Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x259dc4506c73d78b5e4ebc70bdee5833ffe0dc3137b91eec30601276170409bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 2,038$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 74c | 1,375$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.22 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,241$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.22 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 13c | 1,026$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 5c | 1,008$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 21c | 794.89$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.48 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 31c | 759.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.01 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 12c | 756.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 8c | 675.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 65c | 592.91$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 67c | 559.27$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 52c | 539.05$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 25c | 478.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 465.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.33 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 31c | 451.44$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.33 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 41c | 435.07$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 15c | 389.18$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 38c | 387.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.04 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 79c | 370.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 345.49$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 23c | 330$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 50c | 317.53$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 291.29$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 19c | 258.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 236$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 70c | 207.18$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 200.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked No | 12c | 191.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 71c | 181.07$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 33c | 178.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 152$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 76c | 148.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 28c | 148.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 148.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.09 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 147.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 12c | 147.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 17c | 146$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 145.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 124.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 122.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.52 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 21c | 111.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 107.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 106$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadaa…875abacked Yes | 65c | 102.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 74c | 92.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 45c | 92.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 17c | 88.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…b251backed No | 38c | 87.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 19c | 82.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 64c | 79.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 18c | 76.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 67c | 74.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…841cbacked No | 28c | 72.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 59c | 63.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 44c | 63.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 62.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 45c | 62.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 60.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 28c | 59.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed No | 65c | 58.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 53c | 53.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 47c | 50.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked No | 64c | 48.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 45.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 32c | 40.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 38.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…601ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 59c | 35.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 30c | 35.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 33c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 46c | 34.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 63c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 34c | 32.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 32.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed No | 31c | 32.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked No | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 36c | 30.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.