Premier League · resolved market
West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8f4b9e4b818c304f6da07c0ab5077b2aa1b1bfd5ed37b12523aac61a594cd7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 9,987$5,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,238.71 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Over | 52c | 3,095$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.6 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 31c | 2,654$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 32c | 1,760$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.8 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 32c | 1,539$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.2 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 5c | 1,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 55c | 936.02$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.27 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 391 | 56%219 W · 172 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 12c | 452.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 396.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.48 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 16c | 346.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…af3abacked Under | 68c | 304.41$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 32c | 241$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.01 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 68c | 154.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 32c | 154.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…296dbacked Under | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 67c | 106$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 34c | 105.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.85 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 20.2%23 W · 91 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Under | 37c | 80.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 202 | 39.6%80 W · 122 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 31c | 67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 422 | 40.3%170 W · 252 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 54c | 52.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 241 | 58.1%140 W · 101 L | +34.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Over | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 145 | 60%87 W · 58 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)West Ham United FC won
- West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.