Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Berrettini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8fafd1b364ec81394cb5866a77602464f5166ae906dba7040041de49170bffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Medvedev, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Berrettini | 47c | 2,063$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.69 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 17c | 792.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.33 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Medvedev | 45c | 542.38$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.82 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Medvedev | 56c | 538.84$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.82 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…d384backed Medvedev | 65c | 529.84$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.74 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Berrettini | 35c | 323.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.38 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…9f0abacked Medvedev | 58c | 302.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Berrettini | 36c | 244.04$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 373 | 30.3%113 W · 260 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d78…a4ccbacked Medvedev | 56c | 192.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 331 | 55.6%184 W · 147 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Medvedev | 55c | 166.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | +12.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ad0fbacked Berrettini | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Berrettini | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 871 | 35.4%308 W · 563 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Medvedev | 64c | 99.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 456 | 46.3%211 W · 245 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Medvedev | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…d209backed Berrettini | 38c | 96.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Medvedev | 64c | 90.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 235 | 54.5%128 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Berrettini | 38c | 90.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…2f99backed Medvedev | 56c | 87.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Berrettini | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Medvedev | 64c | 73.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Medvedev | 62c | 70.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 836 | 61%510 W · 326 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…349fbacked Medvedev | 63c | 61.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…7f50backed Medvedev | 64c | 61.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Berrettini | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Berrettini | 77c | 51.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 685 | 57.8%396 W · 289 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Medvedev | 58c | 50.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Berrettini | 36c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Medvedev | 64c | 45.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Medvedev | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Medvedev | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…b86cbacked Medvedev | 60c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs Berrettinithis page
- Daniil Medvedev vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.