Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e6df92cdf9961dde158cddff6d11bb026d465fc183db5e19fa5f3d9b9847668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Medvedev, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb272…ee5abacked Medvedev | 45c | 1,081$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.61 | 148 | 22.3%33 W · 115 L | -14.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1990…6da4backed Berrettini | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Medvedev | 3c | 788.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 159 | 56%89 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Medvedev | 39c | 609.55$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.82 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Medvedev | 11c | 465.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…dd32backed Medvedev | 38c | 423.35$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…6d85backed Berrettini | 61c | 400.25$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Medvedev | 49c | 393.04$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…f158backed Berrettini | 59c | 329.42$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Berrettini | 62c | 288.57$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…f4aabacked Medvedev | 42c | 237.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 368 | 48.4%178 W · 190 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Berrettini | 52c | 204.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Berrettini | 55c | 167.86$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…8786backed Berrettini | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 155 | 48.4%75 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Medvedev | 41c | 151.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Medvedev | 62c | 149.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.98 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fb…e28fbacked Medvedev | 44c | 149.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Medvedev | 45c | 136$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 372 | 30.4%113 W · 259 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Berrettini | 38c | 134.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Berrettini | 62c | 133$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Berrettini | 55c | 111.32$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Medvedev | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Medvedev | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Medvedev | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 354 | 39.8%141 W · 213 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Berrettini | 58c | 99.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Medvedev | 47c | 96.34$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…6b0fbacked Berrettini | 57c | 85.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Medvedev | 42c | 76.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 129 | 42.6%55 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed Medvedev | 43c | 73.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +12%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8105…a0a5backed Medvedev | 47c | 72.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Berrettini | 61c | 72.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked Berrettini | 56c | 66.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…9936backed Berrettini | 61c | 59.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0436…f431backed Medvedev | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Berrettini | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Berrettini | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Berrettini | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…a673backed Berrettini | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked Berrettini | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…566dbacked Berrettini | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Berrettini | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2238…e069backed Berrettini | 57c | 20.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…4d42backed Berrettini | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Berrettini | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Berrettini | 56c | 18.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 318 | 53.5%170 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)this page
- Daniil Medvedev vs. Matteo Berrettini: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Medvedev vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo BerrettiniMatteo Berrettini won
- Set 1 Winner: Medvedev vs BerrettiniBerrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.