Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe90b4ad99cba758692453f7d10b315679d8da433a2eaec39a04e8959c27b9e33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 42c | 1,588$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.66 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 741.11$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.67 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 61c | 685$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.42 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 610.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 34c | 476.34$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.2 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 53c | 315.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 39c | 239.55$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 33c | 224.35$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 70c | 175$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 47c | 166.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 35c | 134.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 15c | 109.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 27c | 109.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.58 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 47c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 17c | 98.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…9d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 88.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 48c | 77.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 44c | 58.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 26c | 58.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 57.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057c…adbdbacked Yes | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 56c | 39.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 29c | 34.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…3af4backed Yes | 73c | 33.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 37c | 30.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes | 72c | 28.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 25.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1510…2402backed Yes | 42c | 25.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.