Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe917afc28012a239d0e4cbc8f4abe741b65e76b32ab7159040fd8e2f169d410c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Over | 24c | 2,318$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.99 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…cff4backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 873.76$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.44 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 770.54$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.63 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 58c | 504.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.89 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 493.92$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.12 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 493.83$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.2 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 42c | 456.88$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 32c | 361.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 189$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 54c | 187.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 77c | 168.02$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 158$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 51c | 146$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 71c | 140.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 38c | 132.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 31c | 101.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 49c | 92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb15…8393backed Under | 50c | 85.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 39c | 82.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 51c | 80.27$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d71…c404backed Over | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 31.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 48c | 29.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 49c | 21.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 49c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 59c | 19.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 65c | 19.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.