Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe924d877dd9fdca3494b899cd5f469e38f8e4f5437beb2811ac8a8ee2ba87b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 447.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 441.96$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 79c | 365$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 16c | 314.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 255.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 220.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…4ea7backed Yes | 21c | 196.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 17c | 174.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 10c | 150.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 30c | 149.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 146.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 143.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 28c | 140.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 140.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 24c | 127.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 10c | 126.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 126$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 9c | 122.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 12c | 117.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 66c | 112$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 30c | 105.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 30c | 99.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 96.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 21c | 86.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 69c | 81.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 21c | 74.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 34c | 58.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 57.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 32c | 54.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc11c…714fbacked Yes | 29c | 50.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 50.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…ada8backed Yes | 22c | 46.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 66c | 45.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 45.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd7…19bfbacked No | 66c | 38.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 76c | 33.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…42f8backed No | 65c | 28.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed No | 66c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 23.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 23.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 21.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…2470backed No | 70c | 15.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.