Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90ca8ec7ea6a9663f4072868ed2d61c04b69c469ad96345c4fcbb7c33cf6dc72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 853.33$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.95 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 576.3$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 14c | 448.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 429.22$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 310.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 288.5$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 27c | 211.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.68 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 72c | 200.45$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 184.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 77c | 169.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 163.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 72c | 159.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 70c | 142.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 25c | 134.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 77c | 133.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 133.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 132.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 121.82$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 120.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 53c | 116.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 115.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 71c | 114$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 35c | 107.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 51c | 104.47$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 102.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed No | 74c | 100.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.93 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 99.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked No | 11c | 91.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 91.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 90.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 78c | 90.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 88.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 63c | 88.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 53c | 88.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 36c | 84.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a3…fa45backed No | 60c | 83.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 60.9%95 W · 61 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 16c | 83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 36c | 76.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 41c | 74.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed No | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 73c | 73.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed Yes | 73c | 68.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 78c | 63.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…ca1ebacked Yes | 32c | 62.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 33c | 60.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 50c | 59.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 21c | 58.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 52.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 31c | 50.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 32c | 48.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 47.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 42.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 36.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed Yes | 77c | 33.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 47c | 33.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 67c | 29.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 75c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 22.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked No | 75c | 21.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…37f9backed No | 70c | 21.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…fb40backed Yes | 74c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 64c | 17.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 70c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 69c | 14.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.