Us Politics · resolved market
Another SpaceX Dragon x NASA mission to the ISS in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9281b62eb10a791bcff1cda189b7e7ef707dd82ea059aa3f19de8bc559eb1e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 35c | 1,603$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 1,470$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa7…37fbbacked No | 6c | 1,096$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 1,027$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…77a1backed No | 2c | 974.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 5c | 944.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 887.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 8c | 679.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 5c | 574.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 3c | 562.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 2c | 536$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 6c | 456.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 4c | 271.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 250.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e8…249abacked No | 13c | 236.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 8c | 197$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…1dbabacked No | 9c | 128.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 14c | 121.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…829ebacked No | 14c | 77.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.