MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9450ded1c73c7a535f6e6a475dfd674f5cbb63ac686f08ec81c6fa055c9a323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Houston Astros | 7c | 21,043$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.63 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Houston Astros | 40c | 17,188$6,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,947.08 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 10,000$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 4,849$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,988.04 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 3,783$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.83 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Houston Astros | 44c | 3,000$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 1,646$1,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.61 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Houston Astros | 47c | 858.99$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.79 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…136dbacked Houston Astros | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Seattle Mariners | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Seattle Mariners | 59c | 479.88$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.75 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Houston Astros | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Houston Astros | 39c | 177.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 166$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Houston Astros | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Houston Astros | 25c | 117.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Houston Astros | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.