Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Gauff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9724d08ba158fa24116e6648e3fe5e23fa5d50f3404ee66b47ee250e319d4c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gauffof Samsonova, Gauff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x487f…f4ecbacked Gauff | 66c | 1,477$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.59 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Samsonova | 46c | 1,243$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.86 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…4620backed Samsonova | 46c | 709.09$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Samsonova | 41c | 669.72$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Samsonova | 39c | 506.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…7d88backed Gauff | 39c | 494.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.06 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Gauff | 66c | 460.12$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.44 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Gauff | 57c | 254.8$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.56 | 460 | 40%184 W · 276 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…d7fdbacked Gauff | 66c | 201.8$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 434 | 49.1%213 W · 221 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Gauff | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Samsonova | 50c | 123.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Samsonova | 48c | 122.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…e0c1backed Gauff | 43c | 112.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Samsonova | 35c | 102.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 486 | 50.6%246 W · 240 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Gauff | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Samsonova | 60c | 93.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4a…d477backed Gauff | 72c | 89.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6150…8a24backed Samsonova | 43c | 86.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Gauff | 20c | 81.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 150 | 58.7%88 W · 62 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Samsonova | 22c | 73.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Samsonova | 51c | 70.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Gauff | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…6e47backed Gauff | 58c | 59.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Samsonova | 23c | 46.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Samsonova | 34c | 45.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…fb3dbacked Gauff | 77c | 45.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…19a0backed Gauff | 54c | 41.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 517 | 36.9%191 W · 326 L | -39.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gauff | 51c | 38.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Samsonova | 47c | 35.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…bfbfbacked Gauff | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed Samsonova | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…d150backed Gauff | 76c | 23.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b3…48b6backed Gauff | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Gauffthis page
- Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Liudmila Samsonova vs Coco GauffCoco Gauff won
- Samsonova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5)Gauff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.