Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe98299f8b269c5aa2f2742f99b382ef230d336f336eac9a654709d399d103969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,410$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,344$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 14c | 884.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 28c | 500.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.17 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes | 15c | 468.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 14c | 457.1$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 12c | 373.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 5c | 298.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 259.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 14c | 259.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 20c | 245.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 11c | 225.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…7e87backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 199.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 13c | 190.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc20…5606backed Yes | 15c | 185.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 179.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 175.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 154.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 146.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee2…07a2backed Yes | 13c | 144.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 13c | 125.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…a248backed Yes | 22c | 106.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x704d…aceebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 99.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 18c | 96.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 15c | 85.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 14c | 73.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 20c | 63.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759e…4d38backed Yes | 24c | 59.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 22c | 59.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 54.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed No | 78c | 48.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecd…3923backed Yes | 24c | 46.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -80%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…f109backed No | 78c | 27.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…4ad4backed No | 79c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.