TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,041

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,453 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No5c1,291$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.762,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes71c792.14$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.571,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No6c644.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.851,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes73c644$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.941,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No5c586.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe4f…b7b7backed Yes73c563.39$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.42785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed No40c454.1$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.656633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed No6c450$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.120025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes65c433.32$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes66c413.79$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1413,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x525c…23acbacked No8c381.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6680…4e63backed No5c342.24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes76c329.49$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2954043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes54c327$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.881,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No6c322.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.791,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b7a…8217backed Yes79c321.52$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2189…13f1backed Yes66c313$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.843444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes75c253.17$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x81d3…9972backed Yes80c243.92$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No26c243.16$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5466944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes73c239.55$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6619338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed No11c224.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2347738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No44c214.29$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2925175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x362f…b8eabacked No28c210.94$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.415549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No27c199.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5449038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No27c195.25$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0832830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9471…eb8abacked No6c177.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.413417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes74c163.55$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked No14c163.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3969520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No25c161.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.762,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No29c155.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.663,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No27c154.07$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.011,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9193…a796backed Yes70c150$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No25c149.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No36c145.38$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92d4…4cf3backed Yes77c143.37$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe98b…626abacked Yes77c139.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.691668.8%11 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick69cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No12c132.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.331,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No23c131.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.467,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c113.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.412,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9540…9f9abacked Yes61c110.38$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.731241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No44c107.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.196240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes80c106.76$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.354362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes78c103.85$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0a1a…a248backed Yes78c103.84$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No46c103.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1316456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x394a…ba7fbacked Yes61c102.46$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.961250%6 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+42.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93f9…dbdcbacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes71c99.72$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9211362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes76c98.01$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a29…c361backed Yes78c97.8$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb297…ddd7backed Yes76c97.6$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.42850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+40.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes53c97.39$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.946137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9fa2…7e87backed No26c96.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.056317.5%11 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes45c96$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.077524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebc…6f63backed No13c95.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-88.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7b2…5fbebacked Yes74c91.75$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…6c41backed No18c90.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.956241.9%26 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9502…ba22backed No26c90.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4911146.8%52 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c86.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.225,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes71c85.48$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.91,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1f…0147backed No21c81.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes75c81.32$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7256627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No30c77.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc203…1ad2backed No20c77.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No58c75.79$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.972,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e2e…027cbacked Yes76c73.28$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.89475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes51c72.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes73c71.23$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4333535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked No26c70.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad42…c918backed Yes53c69.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.471963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x416f…18d8backed No23c68.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.711258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x755d…fb59backed Yes72c67.43$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a75…b69abacked Yes72c67.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6510…953bbacked Yes72c67.16$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dd…3f39backed Yes74c65.74$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d61…0e12backed Yes77c65.74$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.44250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f01…4c3abacked No30c64.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6516159%95 W · 66 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ba2…eb93backed Yes75c63.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.192045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bab…f109backed Yes68c63.64$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.053100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7170…e84abacked Yes77c63.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes78c63.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.995349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8706…96f0backed Yes79c61.69$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.72366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes78c61.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2229770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes68c60.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.212,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+64.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83dd…a49abacked Yes59c58.37$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+41%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes71c51.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.173221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No58c50.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda26…8fefbacked Yes77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c81…1b64backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.56144.3%27 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked No21c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes74c49.52$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.789548.4%46 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes71c49.33$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.322945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5fb…6d55backed Yes72c48.6$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No27c47.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8890734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes70c46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.