Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe986c183f53966656b15fd4edb7ac990287d87cd2822e35deb32ec16ee32e0f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,771$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.61 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 1,598$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.12 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 71c | 477.65$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 22c | 417.61$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 33c | 360.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 336.7$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.68 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 66c | 311$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Yes | 39c | 219.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 74c | 170.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 27c | 168.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 19c | 145.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 25c | 145$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 134.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 75c | 93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 73c | 89.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 27c | 73.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80b3…e5d9backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 77c | 61.09$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 74c | 57.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 50.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 50.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 73c | 41.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 28.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 75c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 75c | 24.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 75c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed No | 75c | 24.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 66c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 69c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Yokohama F·Marinos end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
- Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.