MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9904e5df2c943ce82ee41fb81e387049819d727a071b2a6d94718e570815441
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Milwaukee Brewers, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,295$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.16 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 1,100$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 890$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b15…2a05backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 758.9$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 629.54$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.52 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 586.04$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.56 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 384.19$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 365.3$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 340$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84e…523bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 320.81$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 21c | 319.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 293.02$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 141.85$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 141$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 131.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 90.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 78.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…5568backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 62.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 46.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 43.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 43.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 38.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 38.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 30.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 29.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 29.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.