Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe99c6ccaaf3ce2b13c21e0313484edec4bd0c2e3e0073d1e280d70ff12cbf0f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 17c | 2,931$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.91 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 78c | 1,281$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.65 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 13c | 548.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 453.78$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 27c | 290.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 25c | 279.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 174.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked Over | 17c | 154.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 23c | 152.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 345 | 60%207 W · 138 L | +49.3wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Over | 35c | 99.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 23c | 76.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 24c | 69.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 395 | 61.8%244 W · 151 L | +56.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…5f62backed Under | 68c | 69.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 73c | 50.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 186 | 47.3%88 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…d45bbacked Over | 22c | 47.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 75c | 47.53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 300 | 49.7%149 W · 151 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 75c | 41.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3e…8b7cbacked Over | 31c | 41.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Over | 31c | 32.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -52%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 72c | 23.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Under | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 73cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 72c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…42d1backed Under | 73c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 72c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 73c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 241 | 62.2%150 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 73c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 70c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 73c | 13.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 76c | 13.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)Qingdao Xihaian FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.