Tennis · resolved market
Wuhan Tennis Open: Naomi Osaka vs Leylah Fernandez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea12a5df76d3d1abf1a63eecf14c93c41fbbbdf5fc49211deaca6483c43e606e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Osakaof Osaka, Fernandez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Fernandez | 63c | 5,000$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Osaka | 45c | 4,434$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,456.14 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fernandez | 36c | 2,292$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.46 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e957backed Osaka | 64c | 1,392$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.05 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Fernandez | 34c | 1,348$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.84 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Osaka | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Osaka | 66c | 564.68$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.29 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Osaka | 58c | 407$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.31 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Osaka | 78c | 384.08$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…70c3backed Fernandez | 32c | 379.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Osaka | 42c | 235.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.55 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Osaka | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Osaka | 57c | 189.67$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.61 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Osaka | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Fernandez | 34c | 112.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Osaka | 66c | 112.12$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Fernandez | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Osaka | 55c | 97.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Fernandez | 53c | 95.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Fernandez | 31c | 72.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Fernandez | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Fernandez | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Fernandez | 36c | 55.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Fernandez | 35c | 52.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Osaka | 63c | 47.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Osaka | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Osaka | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Osaka | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Osaka | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Fernandez | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Osaka | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ec…80dfbacked Fernandez | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb48…1308backed Fernandez | 68c | 29.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Osaka | 65c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.