Ukraine · resolved market
France sends military trainers to Ukraine before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea15f8518abc7ab86781984c991e44012967f466bd0a23d0d62fbda3278eaba8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 35c | 4,601$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.46 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 35c | 952.78$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.48 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 35c | 924.39$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.02 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 30c | 577.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed No | 25c | 538.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 54c | 456.91$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 60c | 378.46$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 37c | 377$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 22c | 275$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.5 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…26cabacked No | 38c | 201.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…3c29backed No | 79c | 150.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…916abacked No | 46c | 139.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 40c | 115$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…46d5backed No | 20c | 106.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…212cbacked No | 44c | 105.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…38e1backed No | 34c | 76.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +195%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…b172backed No | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…9f65backed No | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed No | 54c | 55.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 75c | 45.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…a600backed No | 73c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.