NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea1a5448d42293e3a909280ec6d2346e1669370e56f8e4efb1160814e5cc6ac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Suns, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Suns | 48c | 20,000$9,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,699.99 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 52c | 10,018$5,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,790.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jazz | 51c | 5,623$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,733.95 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 51c | 2,304$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Jazz | 51c | 1,908$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.85 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 51c | 365$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Suns | 44c | 256.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Jazz | 56c | 225$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Jazz | 49c | 143.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Suns | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Suns | 47c | 126$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Suns | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Jazz | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Jazz | 55c | 76.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 231 | 50.2%116 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Jazz | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…5a17backed Suns | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…d774backed Suns | 46c | 22.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Jazz | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-1.5)this page
- Suns vs. JazzJazz won
- Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 229.5Over won
- Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 230.5Over won
- Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5Over won
- Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Over won
- Suns vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.