Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea24c4a3c977079b38b4a519d9999017c5731e4e80ba50c06cee95c2eb71deb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 4ikibamboniof 4ikibamboni, Ilbirs eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed 4ikibamboni | 65c | 1,061$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.99 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed 4ikibamboni | 57c | 899.59$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.06 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 807.76$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.57 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 754$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.05 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked 4ikibamboni | 62c | 602$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.94 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked 4ikibamboni | 76c | 586.52$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 437.41$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.71 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 252.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 49c | 153.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked 4ikibamboni | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 135.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 26c | 116.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 4ikibamboni | 55c | 94.49$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 86.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 4ikibamboni | 59c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed 4ikibamboni | 77c | 71.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 70.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 67.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8569…2267backed 4ikibamboni | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c0e6backed 4ikibamboni | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 222 | 59%131 W · 91 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…3575backed 4ikibamboni | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed 4ikibamboni | 65c | 27.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…49c7backed 4ikibamboni | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B4ikibamboni won
- Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner4ikibamboni won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.