Fifa International · resolved market
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea290c22771d56ecb302dd5ecf09cbf4ff09e7b32cea8c8d59d017d66c72e073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14f6…79b9backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 10,573$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.02 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 12c | 4,132$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.15 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829c…6cf6backed Yes | 12c | 900$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 10c | 746.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 476 | 48.5%231 W · 245 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 10c | 423.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…de87backed Yes | 12c | 411.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 20.3%25 W · 98 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…3f71backed Yes | 12c | 340.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 19.6%44 W · 180 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…9b74backed Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…9756backed Yes | 13c | 315.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes | 13c | 281.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 63 | 3.2%2 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…9d9abacked Yes | 11c | 267$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 227 | 30.4%69 W · 158 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…c114backed Yes | 11c | 261.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa071…6250backed Yes | 13c | 260.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…4a7abacked Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…b499backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 40.4%82 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…e40fbacked Yes | 12c | 120.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…bce6backed Yes | 11c | 119.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1144…4b04backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 12c | 97.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Spain?this page
- Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia?Yes won
- Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.