Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea51c44cbb013e83725d1b1f43f3a08a382d83a702fcfe3e4db9d6f4ad850304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 58c | 693.02$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 19c | 681.52$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 76c | 445.84$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 265.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 67c | 165$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 28c | 151.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 31c | 140.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 69c | 113$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 83.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 75c | 80.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 78.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 66c | 75.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 16c | 72.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 61.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 71c | 60.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 66c | 59.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 55.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 45.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 30.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 68c | 27.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…8dddbacked No | 67c | 16.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3947backed Yes | 77c | 14.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 77c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.