Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-13.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea5f7b255c8c0589bba120419ee2f0d4f3d78893b90aab8e24754aa934757173

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: San Diego Torerosof California-San Diego Tritons, San Diego Toreros
Resolved: Dec 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,496
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,497

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,496 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked San Diego Toreros	50c	1,567$785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$782.06	12,422	49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L	+118.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked California-San Diego Tritons	50c	1,401$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked California-San Diego Tritons	49c	300$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	2,687	48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed San Diego Toreros	52c	250$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	349	47.9%167 W · 182 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed San Diego Toreros	49c	129$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.46	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed San Diego Toreros	51c	126$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.74	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed San Diego Toreros	52c	122$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.56	87	56.3%49 W · 38 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0643…d46bbacked California-San Diego Tritons	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-7.5wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed San Diego Toreros	51c	99$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.51	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd53…a861backed San Diego Toreros	51c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.53	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked San Diego Toreros	51c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.53	42	66.7%28 W · 14 L	+5.7wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+26%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Toreros	77c	92.06$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.52	5,553	47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L	+26.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked California-San Diego Tritons	50c	64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	110	55.5%61 W · 49 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed San Diego Toreros	49c	61$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.11	65	46.2%30 W · 35 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26fc…2286backed California-San Diego Tritons	48c	57$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.56	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed San Diego Toreros	51c	56$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.44	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed San Diego Toreros	51c	51$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.99	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	-9.2wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-26%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1600…5a08backed California-San Diego Tritons	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	40	37.5%15 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked San Diego Toreros	48c	46$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.92	72	55.6%40 W · 32 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked San Diego Toreros	45c	44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.2	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed San Diego Toreros	51c	42$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.58	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-3.9wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	37$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	39	59%23 W · 16 L	+2.2wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed San Diego Toreros	51c	34$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.66	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d82dbacked California-San Diego Tritons	49c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09db…7384backed California-San Diego Tritons	48c	34$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked California-San Diego Tritons	49c	33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed San Diego Toreros	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	1,985	64.1%1,273 W · 712 L	+144.2wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed San Diego Toreros	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked San Diego Toreros	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked San Diego Toreros	52c	30$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	70	61.4%43 W · 27 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd104…0c60backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.72	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed San Diego Toreros	51c	28$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.72	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6393…dde9backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	27$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed San Diego Toreros	51c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.23	39	35.9%14 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72df…42f6backed California-San Diego Tritons	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	32	59.4%19 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc856…0aa5backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c9…3f9fbacked California-San Diego Tritons	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed California-San Diego Tritons	55c	24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed California-San Diego Tritons	52c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked California-San Diego Tritons	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50be…bcb1backed California-San Diego Tritons	52c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34b2…cec2backed California-San Diego Tritons	51c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f7…2894backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	28	64.3%18 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	40	47.5%19 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed California-San Diego Tritons	49c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	41	48.8%20 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-13.5)this page
San Diego Toreros vs. California-San Diego TritonsSan Diego Toreros won
San Diego Toreros vs. California-San Diego Tritons: O/U 156.5Over won
Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-14.5)San Diego Toreros won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-13.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event