Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd47770ef84b490cae93e867bc042002c8b56789821f70a1d98ab8c3226de102
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Torerosof California-San Diego Tritons, San Diego Toreros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked San Diego Toreros | 49c | 609.8$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 50c | 536.9$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed San Diego Toreros | 54c | 144$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked San Diego Toreros | 55c | 138$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed San Diego Toreros | 52c | 122$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed California-San Diego Tritons | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed San Diego Toreros | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed San Diego Toreros | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed San Diego Toreros | 55c | 67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed San Diego Toreros | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed San Diego Toreros | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked San Diego Toreros | 55c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed San Diego Toreros | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked San Diego Toreros | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed San Diego Toreros | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked San Diego Toreros | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed California-San Diego Tritons | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed California-San Diego Tritons | 50c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed California-San Diego Tritons | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed California-San Diego Tritons | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-14.5)this page
- San Diego Toreros vs. California-San Diego TritonsSan Diego Toreros won
- San Diego Toreros vs. California-San Diego Tritons: O/U 156.5Over won
- Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-13.5)San Diego Toreros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.