MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea75b1ff21b582e417762481e46de744f79073b66707ba34d547676775795f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 10,400$5,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,992 | 156 | 51.3%80 W · 76 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 48c | 9,063$4,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,350.05 | 189 | 59.8%113 W · 76 L | +14.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 48c | 2,556$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.93 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Over | 51c | 2,184$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.26 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 1,798$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190.53 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 51c | 1,602$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.7 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 9c | 1,574$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.96 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 48c | 1,259$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.7 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 48c | 1,200$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 1,174$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.2 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 990.02$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.81 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 668.96$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.53 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 12c | 457.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Over | 48c | 431.66$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.46 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 49c | 312.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 66c | 289.59$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.13 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 48c | 241.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 52c | 232.69$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 227.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 49c | 214.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Over | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 120.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 49c | 96.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 84.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 50c | 78.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 71c | 49.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 47.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 69c | 42.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 41.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 60c | 40.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 31c | 37.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 51c | 32.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 301 | 55.1%166 W · 135 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 40c | 25.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b88…8b2dbacked Under | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Under | 69c | 15.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 71c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota TwinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.