Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea780cb14fa1e1eaae473311ae8c612344c35c3b52e13e0672176d9790185944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 30c | 391.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 194.42$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked No | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 128.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 69c | 126.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 126$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 57c | 121.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 21c | 113.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 103.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed Yes | 48c | 100.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 94.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 60c | 94.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 91.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 79.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 27c | 75.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x429d…1bacbacked No | 72c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…b884backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 60.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 56c | 58.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd0…a3b5backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ee…d06abacked Yes | 22c | 54.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…eeb0backed No | 78c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 66c | 51.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…66bbbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 23c | 49.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 52c | 48.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…f4d7backed No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…41e7backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 68c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 43.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…de08backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 69c | 37.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 36c | 35.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 34.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 44c | 33.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 46c | 29.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 29.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e1…3f64backed Yes | 48c | 27.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 25.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 25.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 57c | 22.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b3…7d44backed No | 67c | 18.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 17.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 77c | 16.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 72c | 15.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.