Serie A · resolved market
SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea8b49f49a3dc799fc0ac965c52e3e6fdfb4da49b127f3b2e88e788568c55c10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,344 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 77c | 3,897$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.31 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 2,440$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.94 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…9a5fbacked Under | 77c | 1,294$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.19 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 23c | 1,268$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.76 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 73c | 616.44$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.44 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 78c | 540.88$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.88 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 24c | 498.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 25c | 279.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 23c | 273.07$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Under | 70c | 265.5$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 230$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 147 | 48.3%71 W · 76 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…0e2cbacked Over | 6c | 168.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Under | 77c | 162.34$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 20c | 157.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 25c | 153$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…a5f5backed Under | 80c | 130.21$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 14c | 124.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 11c | 120.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 181 | 25.4%46 W · 135 L | -18.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…4c7abacked Under | 80c | 78.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 18c | 67.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf450…9817backed Under | 73c | 63.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…6865backed Under | 73c | 58.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…19e1backed Under | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Under | 79c | 56.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 27c | 54.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c7…4c21backed Under | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…257cbacked Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.