Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x794342ebd515158cc4588ecd83f7fe4ad2e9a42fe2c49d6c98135d40cdc10f2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SS Lazioof AC Milan, SS Lazio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,618 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SS Lazio | 76c | 4,084$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.4 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked SS Lazio | 77c | 1,475$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.4 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked AC Milan | 26c | 1,250$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.87 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked AC Milan | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…93acbacked AC Milan | 28c | 1,073$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.44 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed AC Milan | 23c | 699.98$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed AC Milan | 25c | 323.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…bdfbbacked AC Milan | 28c | 221.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SS Lazio | 72c | 219.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…792fbacked AC Milan | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked AC Milan | 26c | 158.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed SS Lazio | 74c | 154$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked AC Milan | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…259ebacked AC Milan | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ce…468bbacked AC Milan | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked SS Lazio | 74c | 99.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd571…d24abacked AC Milan | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked AC Milan | 23c | 79.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked AC Milan | 27c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed AC Milan | 28c | 67.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked SS Lazio | 77c | 50.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…a5ccbacked SS Lazio | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed SS Lazio | 72c | 42.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed SS Lazio | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed SS Lazio | 77c | 36.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…b4e9backed SS Lazio | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed SS Lazio | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed SS Lazio | 74c | 24.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed SS Lazio | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed SS Lazio | 75c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked SS Lazio | 80c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- SS Lazio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)SS Lazio won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: SS Lazio (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.