Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab2637a6fb1b8c596fb6ed3806d4f6d98a9b61c22be110fcea0fd8a2444ae71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers | 14c | 3,084$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.35 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…0765backed Yakult Brothers | 1c | 3,060$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693c…a7edbacked Yakult Brothers | 4c | 2,615$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Yakult Brothers | 1c | 2,430$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yakult Brothers | 15c | 1,689$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.61 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d54…9277backed MOUZ | 74c | 1,460$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yakult Brothers | 26c | 1,060$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.2 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…91b0backed MOUZ | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 800.38$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.74 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 690$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Yakult Brothers | 26c | 660.85$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.82 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed MOUZ | 79c | 507.65$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yakult Brothers | 5c | 299.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 232.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 79c | 232.91$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Yakult Brothers | 29c | 159.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed MOUZ | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd8…c4abbacked Yakult Brothers | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Yakult Brothers | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a48cbacked MOUZ | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…6960backed MOUZ | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked MOUZ | 80c | 19.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakult Brothers won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.