Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b421073dbae7ab04b119dda05f742718411bb0ba83856365bbe8080f3fedcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yakult Brothersof MOUZ, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked MOUZ | 41c | 2,400$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed MOUZ | 16c | 1,797$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.57 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ | 1c | 1,425$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…2fe9backed MOUZ | 79c | 1,297$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 1,297$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.33 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ | 31c | 750$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ | 50c | 634.93$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Yakult Brothers | 79c | 630.41$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Yakult Brothers | 40c | 445.53$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.92 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yakult Brothers | 57c | 386.89$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.62 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Yakult Brothers | 61c | 327.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.38 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ | 73c | 222$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Yakult Brothers | 78c | 214.92$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Yakult Brothers | 27c | 210.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…0765backed MOUZ | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Yakult Brothers | 72c | 189.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…3d14backed MOUZ | 48c | 177.08$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked MOUZ | 12c | 158.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ | 13c | 157.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked MOUZ | 52c | 152.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 19c | 146.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…aa13backed MOUZ | 48c | 89.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Yakult Brothers | 59c | 86.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228a…1094backed Yakult Brothers | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed MOUZ | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…56c0backed Yakult Brothers | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked MOUZ | 48c | 37.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8a…d30fbacked Yakult Brothers | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.