TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yakult Brothersof MOUZ, Yakult Brothers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,663 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fe9…706abacked MOUZ41c2,400$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98415852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3103…d804backed MOUZ16c1,797$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.578627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed MOUZ1c1,425$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2580443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab0…2fe9backed MOUZ79c1,297$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.333348.5%16 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick62cpaid-21.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Yakult Brothers21c1,297$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.3355751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5388…4d5abacked MOUZ31c750$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.521847.2%103 W · 115 L+16.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed MOUZ50c634.93$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.4662841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Yakult Brothers79c630.41$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.618075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed Yakult Brothers40c445.53$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.9236442.3%154 W · 210 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Yakult Brothers57c386.89$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6238049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Yakult Brothers61c327.38$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.3860646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ73c222$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.066750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xebf4…181ebacked Yakult Brothers78c214.92$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5410770.1%75 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed Yakult Brothers27c210.89$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.955540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked MOUZ45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9013262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ba9…0765backed MOUZ30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Yakult Brothers72c189.74$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4313450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed MOUZ48c177.08$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked MOUZ12c158.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.035756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed MOUZ13c157.82$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5254445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3481…6b3cbacked MOUZ52c152.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ19c146.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ15c140$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164123.4%150 W · 491 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd718…aa13backed MOUZ48c89.17$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.82240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-40%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a1c…c03abacked Yakult Brothers59c86.44$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.441118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x228a…1094backed Yakult Brothers75c59.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…14f1backed MOUZ30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153839.5%15 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5a…56c0backed Yakult Brothers68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf051…a54cbacked MOUZ48c37.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.957149.3%35 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c8a…d30fbacked Yakult Brothers70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52564%16 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.