Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e4afe4478ee31c9bcd0f41b7cd82156892884fde668e34c4f4d5e0efa533cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Yakult Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked MOUZ | 79c | 5,042$4,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.26 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…b2e0backed Yakult Brothers | 19c | 4,750$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.43 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Yakult Brothers | 23c | 3,025$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.71 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed Yakult Brothers | 2c | 2,995$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed MOUZ | 74c | 2,261$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.62 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked Yakult Brothers | 23c | 2,067$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakult Brothers | 14c | 1,573$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Yakult Brothers | 8c | 1,473$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Yakult Brothers | 12c | 1,350$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Yakult Brothers | 15c | 1,293$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yakult Brothers | 7c | 1,291$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 973.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.05 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Yakult Brothers | 14c | 900.05$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 747.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Yakult Brothers | 16c | 711$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 627.17$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 78c | 619.08$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.2 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…c764backed MOUZ | 78c | 600$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfe…ab8dbacked Yakult Brothers | 31c | 599.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Yakult Brothers | 2c | 542.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Yakult Brothers | 21c | 478.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.41 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yakult Brothers | 11c | 451.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yakult Brothers | 15c | 411.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6450…9547backed Yakult Brothers | 29c | 402.03$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…9ea9backed MOUZ | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed MOUZ | 65c | 338.39$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 300.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yakult Brothers | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Yakult Brothers | 13c | 297.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Yakult Brothers | 18c | 276.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yakult Brothers | 34c | 275$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed MOUZ | 79c | 269.31$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakult Brothers | 15c | 216.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yakult Brothers | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed MOUZ | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed Yakult Brothers | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…ac6abacked Yakult Brothers | 6c | 172.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Yakult Brothers | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked MOUZ | 77c | 129.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked MOUZ | 78c | 128.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Yakult Brothers | 23c | 123$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed Yakult Brothers | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Yakult Brothers | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Yakult Brothers | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Yakult Brothers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked MOUZ | 80c | 99.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked MOUZ | 79c | 91.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Yakult Brothers | 12c | 90.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Yakult Brothers | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Yakult Brothers | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed MOUZ | 77c | 74.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked MOUZ | 74c | 64.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99e…8102backed MOUZ | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed MOUZ | 80c | 52.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0e…c6a8backed Yakult Brothers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…4544backed MOUZ | 72c | 36.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca50…7aa5backed MOUZ | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…20c6backed MOUZ | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked MOUZ | 80c | 25.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed MOUZ | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 WinnerMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 WinnerYakult Brothers won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.