Serie A · resolved market
Will Napoli beat Parma Calcio?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeae554e3df29a14281f28c612facbb004949578bce9a7daa72ff2e567f969ff6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 34c | 775.61$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.66 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 37c | 749.12$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.56 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Yes | 64c | 431.97$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 34c | 391.74$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.4 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 47c | 302.61$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.66 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 17c | 237.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…4934backed Yes | 66c | 159.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…6ce4backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 151.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 66c | 145$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked No | 33c | 133.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…25eebacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 35c | 82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 59c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ef…1212backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 68c | 64.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc914…bafebacked Yes | 67c | 60.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 63c | 60.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Yes | 59c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 65c | 49.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d97…2751backed No | 35c | 49.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda4…a2a3backed No | 36c | 31.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa45…0339backed Yes | 66c | 30.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902a…8a8bbacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bf…5cadbacked Yes | 66c | 16.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…1f58backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…064ebacked Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Napoli beat Parma Calcio?this page
- Will Parma Calcio vs. Napoli end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.