MLB · resolved market
Mets vs. Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf3379ddf80b93a3b0a0c786486f926f1158cd4f063a4d1ca8161755b2649db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof Mets, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Mets | 0c | 17,354$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mets | 53c | 15,546$8,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,271.11 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Cardinals | 44c | 10,978$4,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,130.44 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Mets | 56c | 4,155$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,310.59 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cardinals | 51c | 3,572$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…5e64backed Mets | 26c | 3,100$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 45c | 2,777$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.56 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Mets | 53c | 2,389$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.66 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6d…aeb9backed Mets | 16c | 1,450$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cardinals | 44c | 1,408$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.48 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Mets | 58c | 1,001$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Mets | 55c | 943$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.64 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Cardinals | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Mets | 55c | 884.27$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.35 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…3601backed Cardinals | 44c | 778.97$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.22 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Cardinals | 49c | 620$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…3b9ebacked Mets | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Cardinals | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Cardinals | 49c | 415$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cardinals | 80c | 370$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Mets | 12c | 311.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mets | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cardinals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Mets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mets | 56c | 128$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…021fbacked Cardinals | 49c | 118.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Mets | 53c | 109.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mets | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Mets | 52c | 59.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 57c | 52.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Mets | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Cardinals | 46c | 41.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cardinals | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…88d5backed Mets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Mets | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cardinals | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Mets | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.